T20 Batting First: Win % From the Score and Wickets at 15 Overs
Fifteen overs in, a T20 score and the wickets column together say a lot about who wins. Here is what 6,085 men's games show at that checkpoint.
Written by Aria BennettCricket Tips specialist
- Checkpoint
- Innings checkpoints
- Question
- In men's T20, how often does the side batting first win from each score and wickets-down state after 15 overs?
- Sample
- Men's T20 franchise leagues and men's T20 internationals between Full Members, 2005-2026, 6,085 completed 20-over games with a clean result
- 79.4%145+ after 15 overs: side batting first wins
- 20.8%Under 100 after 15 overs: wins
- 68.0%0-2 down after 15 overs: wins
- 11.3%7+ down after 15 overs: wins
Fifteen overs into a T20 innings, the side batting first has a score, a wicket count and five overs left to swing. I wanted to know how much that snapshot really tells you about the finish, so I worked through 6,085 completed men's T20 games from franchise leagues and internationals between Full Members. Across the lot, the side batting first won 48.2%, and its average score at the checkpoint was 117.9.
The 15-over state matters a great deal, and wickets carry nearly as much weight as runs. From 145+ the side batting first won 79.4%, and from under 100 it won 20.8%. With 0-2 down it won 68.0%, but with 7+ down only 11.3%. This is the frame I use for reading the middle of an innings on my live cricket tips page.
Break 1Bigger 15-over totals turn close chases into comfortable defences
Each row of the grid is a score band at 15 overs, split by how the game ended. Close to the typical score, on 115-129, the side batting first won 54.7% of 1,440 games, which works out to fair odds of 1.83. That is the closest thing to a coin flip on the chart, and it sits almost exactly where the average score lands.
The edges are where it gets interesting. From under 100, 61.3% of games were chased down with 7+ balls left, so the chase usually finishes early rather than in the last over. From 145+, 54.7% were defended by 25+ runs and only 8.5% were chased with 7+ balls to spare.
Row label: score after 15 overs, win rate of the side batting first, fair odds and n. Average score after 15 overs: 117.9.
View the data: score after 15 overs vs how the match ended
| Defended by 25+ | Defended by 1-24 | Chased in last over | Chased, 7+ balls left | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 100: first side won 20.8%, fair odds 4.81 (1,366) | 6.8% | 14.0% | 17.9% | 61.3% |
| 100-114: first side won 38.5%, fair odds 2.60 (1,462) | 14.8% | 23.7% | 23.9% | 37.6% |
| 115-129: first side won 54.7%, fair odds 1.83 (1,440) | 25.8% | 28.9% | 24.2% | 21.1% |
| 130-144: first side won 65.1%, fair odds 1.54 (1,007) | 38.7% | 26.4% | 19.8% | 15.1% |
| 145+: first side won 79.4%, fair odds 1.26 (810) | 54.7% | 24.7% | 12.1% | 8.5% |
For a bettor this matters beyond the match result. A low 15-over score points towards a quick chase, and a big one points towards a wide winning margin, which is useful if you look at margin or innings-length markets.
Break 2Wickets in hand move the result as much as runs
Ignore the score entirely and look only at the wickets column, and the spread is still huge. With 0-2 down at 15 overs the side batting first won 68.0% of 1,085 games. At 3-4 down that fell to 54.5%, and at 5-6 down to 33.1% over 1,657 games.
At 7+ down the win rate was just 11.3% from 408 games. With the tail already exposed, the death overs that should lift the total turn into a scramble to bat out the innings.
View the data: win % by wickets down after 15 overs
| Men's T20, side batting first, all scores | |
|---|---|
| All games (6,085) | 48.2% |
| 0-2 down (1,085) | 68.0% |
| 3-4 down (2,935) | 54.5% |
| 5-6 down (1,657) | 33.1% |
| 7+ down (408) | 11.3% |
I read this as the hidden half of the scorecard. Plenty of people glance at the runs and stop there, but a side three down and a side six down on the same total are playing different matches over the final five overs.
Break 3The same score means far more with wickets intact
Put the two together and the picture sharpens. The best common state was 145+ for 0-2, with 84.1% wins from 353 games and fair odds of 1.19. The weakest was under 100 for 7+, with 8.1% from 295 games and fair odds of 12.29.
The middle band shows how far wickets drag a score. On 115-129, sides at 0-2 won 63.6%, at 3-4 they won 56.8%, and at 5-6 only 44.7%. Under 100 for 3-4 and 100-114 for 5-6 both sit at 31.4%, so a few extra runs roughly cancel out two extra wickets.
| State after 15 overs | Games | Win % | 95% range | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 145+ for 0-2 | 353 | 84.1% | ยฑ3.8 | 1.19 |
| 145+ for 3-4 | 391 | 77.7% | ยฑ4.1 | 1.29 |
| 130-144 for 3-4 | 540 | 67.4% | ยฑ4.0 | 1.48 |
| 130-144 for 0-2 | 304 | 65.5% | ยฑ5.3 | 1.53 |
| 115-129 for 0-2 | 264 | 63.6% | ยฑ5.8 | 1.57 |
| 130-144 for 5-6 | 153 | 57.5% | ยฑ7.8 | 1.74 |
| 115-129 for 3-4 | 826 | 56.8% | ยฑ3.4 | 1.76 |
| 100-114 for 0-2 | 128 | 49.2% | ยฑ8.7 | 2.03 |
| 115-129 for 5-6 | 320 | 44.7% | ยฑ5.4 | 2.24 |
| 100-114 for 3-4 | 761 | 43.8% | ยฑ3.5 | 2.29 |
| Under 100 for 3-4 | 417 | 31.4% | ยฑ4.5 | 3.18 |
| 100-114 for 5-6 | 503 | 31.4% | ยฑ4.1 | 3.18 |
| Under 100 for 5-6 | 618 | 19.1% | ยฑ3.1 | 5.24 |
| Under 100 for 7+ | 295 | 8.1% | ยฑ3.1 | 12.29 |
One oddity: 130-144 for 3-4 came in at 67.4% against 65.5% for 0-2. The 95% ranges overlap comfortably, so I treat those two as level rather than reading anything into the order.
Break 4Internationals reward a par score more than franchise leagues
Split by competition, the extremes look similar but the middle does not. On 115-129 the side batting first won 53.4% in leagues from 1,219 games and 61.5% in T20Is from 221. At 145+ the two are close, with 79.1% in leagues and 80.9% in internationals.
My guess is depth. Franchise sides often bat deeper and chase more freely on true surfaces, so a middling total is easier to haul in. The international sample is far smaller, though, so I treat the gap as a lean rather than a rule.
View the data: leagues vs internationals at the same 15-over score
| Men's T20 leagues | Men's T20Is | |
|---|---|---|
| Under 100 (1,105 league / 261 international games) | 19.7% | 25.3% |
| 100-114 (1,244 league / 218 international games) | 38.7% | 37.2% |
| 115-129 (1,219 league / 221 international games) | 53.4% | 61.5% |
| 130-144 (858 league / 149 international games) | 63.8% | 73.2% |
| 145+ (669 league / 141 international games) | 79.1% | 80.9% |
The main caveat applies to every chart here: this is an unadjusted historical split. Scoring has risen over the years and pitches vary from ground to ground, so 120 at a slow venue is not 120 at a short boundary, and none of it tells you what in-play prices already reflect.
At the break
- Read the wickets column
Before judging the score, check how many are down. Sides at 0-2 won 68.0% and sides at 7+ down won 11.3%, a bigger gap than most score bands produce.
- Anchor on 115-129 as par
That band won 54.7% with fair odds of 1.83, so treat it as roughly even and judge the rest of the state from there. Wickets can move it from 63.6% down to 44.7%.
- Think about the margin
From 145+, 54.7% of games were defended by 25+ runs, and from under 100, 61.3% were chased with 7+ balls left. A strong 15-over state often points to a lopsided finish, not just a win.
Questions bettors ask
What is a winning score after 15 overs in T20?
In this data, 145+ after 15 overs won 79.4% of games for the side batting first, and 145+ for 0-2 won 84.1%. Around 115-129 is closer to even at 54.7%.
How much do wickets matter at 15 overs in a T20?
A lot. Across all scores the side batting first won 68.0% with 0-2 down, 33.1% with 5-6 down and 11.3% with 7+ down.
Is a par 15-over score worth more in T20 internationals than in leagues?
It was in this sample. On 115-129, the side batting first won 61.5% in men's T20Is against 53.4% in men's leagues, though the international sample is much smaller.
Cricket writer at htft.tips. Tests, ODIs and T20s โ I read the pitch, the toss and the conditions before I read the teamsheet.
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