NHL Goals After Two Periods: How Often 3, 4 or 5 Goals Go Over 5.5
Across 17,921 regular-season games, the goals still to come after the second intermission barely change with the score count. That is why the over 5.5 line swings so sharply.
Written by Joon-ho LeeIce Hockey Predictions specialist
- Checkpoint
- Intermissions
- Question
- Given the number of goals after two periods, how often does an NHL game finish over 5.5 or 6.5, and how many goals are still to come?
- Sample
- NHL regular season, 2010-11 to 2025-26 (2014-15 not included), 17,921 games
- 2.23Average goals after the 2nd intermission
- 61.7%Over 5.5 with 4 goals after two
- 34.2%Over 5.5 with 3 goals after two
- 7.7%Games with no goal after two periods
When the second intermission arrives, a totals bettor has a single fact to work with: how many goals are already on the board. I wanted to know how much that count really tells you about over 5.5 and over 6.5, and how many goals the last 20 minutes, overtime and the shootout tend to add.
The answer is cleaner than I expected. Across 17,921 regular-season games, an average of 2.23 goals came after the second intermission, and that figure hardly moved whether two periods produced one goal or six. The over line therefore turns almost entirely on the count you already have. Four goals after two went over 5.5 in 61.7% of games, three goals in 34.2%. I use these base rates as the anchor for in-play totals on my NHL over/under tips page.
Break 1Over 5.5 jumps sharply between three and four goals
The bars show the share of games finishing over 5.5 for each goal count after two periods. Three goals after two is the most common state, covering 3,738 games or 20.9% of the sample, and over 5.5 landed in 34.2% of them. Add one goal to the count and the rate climbs to 61.7%.
Further out, the slope steepens. With 2 goals after two, over 5.5 needed four more and arrived only 13.4% of the time. With 5 goals it came in 89.8%, and with 1 goal just 3.9%.
0 goals after two: 0.7%; 6+ goals after two always went over 5.5.
View the data: over 5.5 by goals after two periods
| Share of games finishing over 5.5 | |
|---|---|
| 1 goal | 3.9% |
| 2 goals | 13.4% |
| 3 goals | 34.2% |
| 4 goals | 61.7% |
| 5 goals | 89.8% |
What I take from this is that the middle of the chart is where the real decisions sit. At three or four goals the over is genuinely open, and a single goal before the hooter changes the picture enormously.
Break 2Roughly two more goals arrive, whatever the count
The heatmap splits each goal count by how many goals were added after 40 minutes, with overtime winners and shootout credit included. The headline is stability. The average was 2.27 after three goals, 2.23 after four and 2.18 after six, so a high-scoring first 40 minutes does not reliably signal a high-scoring finish. In 68.0% of all games at least two more goals came, and a completely goalless finish happened in only 7.7%.
Look closely and an odd and even pattern appears. Rows with an odd count after two lean heavily on exactly two more goals, while even rows split between one and three. That is the overtime effect at work: an even count can be level, and a level game must produce a winner, which adds a goal. Games still scoreless after two never finished without at least one more.
Includes the overtime winner and the shootout goal credit.
View the data: goals after the second intermission
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 goals (430) | 0.0% | 41.2% | 13.0% | 33.5% | 12.3% |
| 1 goal (1,661) | 10.9% | 11.9% | 45.9% | 11.9% | 19.5% |
| 2 goals (3,078) | 3.2% | 33.2% | 18.9% | 31.3% | 13.4% |
| 3 goals (3,738) | 10.8% | 14.6% | 40.4% | 13.3% | 20.9% |
| 4 goals (3,614) | 5.3% | 33.0% | 18.2% | 29.6% | 13.9% |
| 5 goals (2,518) | 10.2% | 16.7% | 39.4% | 14.0% | 19.7% |
| 6 goals (1,567) | 7.1% | 32.0% | 20.3% | 26.4% | 14.2% |
| 7+ goals (1,315) | 11.0% | 22.1% | 32.2% | 18.1% | 16.7% |
For the four-goal row, exactly two more came in 18.2% of games and none in 5.3%. A quiet final 20 minutes at four goals is rarer than many bettors assume, because a tied game cannot simply stop.
Break 3Fair over prices shrink fast past three goals
The table converts each observed share into fair decimal odds, with no margin. Three goals after two gives a fair over 5.5 price of 2.92 and over 6.5 at 4.78. Four goals brings those down to 1.62 and 2.30, with over 6.5 landing in 43.5%. At five goals the fair prices are 1.11 and 1.37.
The extremes tell their own story. Games scoreless after two (430 of them) went over 5.5 in just 0.7%, a fair price of 142.86. With 6 goals after two (1,567 games), every one was already over 5.5, and over 6.5 followed in 92.9%.
| After 2nd | Games | Goals to come | Over 5.5 | Fair | Over 6.5 | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 goals | 430 | 2.23 | 0.7% | 142.86 | 0.2% | 500.00 |
| 1 goal | 1,661 | 2.23 | 3.9% | 25.64 | 1.8% | 55.56 |
| 2 goals | 3,078 | 2.27 | 13.4% | 7.46 | 6.2% | 16.13 |
| 3 goals | 3,738 | 2.27 | 34.2% | 2.92 | 20.9% | 4.78 |
| 4 goals | 3,614 | 2.23 | 61.7% | 1.62 | 43.5% | 2.30 |
| 5 goals | 2,518 | 2.22 | 89.8% | 1.11 | 73.1% | 1.37 |
| 6 goals | 1,567 | 2.18 | 100.0% | - | 92.9% | 1.08 |
| 7+ goals | 1,315 | 2.14 | 100.0% | - | 100.0% | - |
One caveat matters. These are all-game base rates, so the score state and team strength still shape the third period, and a lopsided game with an empty net coming plays differently from a tight one. I treat these prices as a starting line, not a final verdict.
At the break
- Anchor on two more
Expect roughly 2.23 goals after the second intermission regardless of the count. A busy first 40 minutes does not, on its own, justify expecting a busier finish.
- Respect the four-goal state
At four goals after two, over 5.5 landed in 61.7%, a fair price of 1.62. Anything noticeably bigger is worth a second look, after checking the score state.
- Factor in overtime
An even count can be level, and a level game needs a winner. That is part of why a goalless finish happened in only 7.7% of all games.
Questions bettors ask
How often does an NHL game go over 5.5 with 4 goals after two periods?
In 3,614 games with 4 goals after two, the final total went over 5.5 in 61.7%. Over 6.5 followed in 43.5%.
How many goals are scored in the NHL after the second intermission?
An average of 2.23 goals came after the second intermission across 17,921 games, including overtime and shootout credit. At least two more goals arrived in 68.0% of games.
What are fair odds for over 5.5 with 3 goals after two periods?
With 3 goals after two, over 5.5 came in 34.2%, which converts to fair decimal odds of 2.92 before any margin. Over 6.5 had a fair price of 4.78.
Ice hockey writer at htft.tips. Goaltending, special teams and shot quality sit at the centre of my over/under work.
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