Does the Tennis Favourite Win the First Set as Often as the Match?
The first set is a noisier test than the match. Short-priced favourites drop it far more often than they lose, and the best-of-five format stretches the gap further.
Written by Sophie LaurentTennis Predictions specialist
- Checkpoint
- Set by set
- Question
- How often does the pre-match favourite win the first set compared with the match, at each price level and format?
- Sample
- ATP 2004-2025 (no 2009) and WTA 2007-2025 (no 2009) tour-level singles (results to September 2026); 92,620 priced matches with complete set scores
- 65.2%Favourites winning set 1
- 69.6%Favourites winning the match
- 68.9%Set-1 win rate, men's best of five
- 1.53Fair first-set odds, average favourite
When I watch a match I keep two prices in mind: the one for the whole contest and the one for the opening set. They are not the same bet. A favourite has room to recover across a match, but in a single set one loose service game can decide everything. So how often does the pre-match favourite actually take that first set compared with the match itself?
Across 92,620 priced tour-level matches, the favourite was priced at 68.9% on average, won the first set 65.2% of the time and won the match 69.6% of the time. The opening set behaves like a slightly closer contest than the match, and that has a direct effect on what fair first-set odds should look like. I use this as a reference whenever I build my tennis predictions today page.
Break 1The first-set gap widens as the favourite gets shorter
Each row is a price band. The left dot is how often the favourite won set 1 and the right dot is how often they won the match. In the closest band, favourites priced 50-60%, the two sit almost together: 53.6% for the set against 55.1% for the match, a gap of +1.5 points across 26,007 matches.
Move towards the heavy favourites and the dots drift apart. In the 70-80% band the favourite took the first set 69.7% of the time but the match 76.1%. Favourites priced 90% or more won set 1 88.7% of the time, with a 95% range of ±0.9 points, and the match 95.4%. The gap there is +6.7 points.
Bands = favourite's margin-free pre-match chance. Range bar = 95% range on the set-1 rate.
View the data: favourite: first set won vs match won
| Won set 1 | Won the match | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50-60% (26,007 matches) | 53.6% | 55.1% | ±0.6 |
| 60-70% (26,739 matches) | 61.3% | 65.3% | ±0.6 |
| 70-80% (21,145 matches) | 69.7% | 76.1% | ±0.6 |
| 80-90% (13,418 matches) | 79.1% | 86.1% | ±0.7 |
| 90%+ (5,311 matches) | 88.7% | 95.4% | ±0.9 |
My reading is that a strong player can afford a slow start. Over a full match their quality comes through, but a single set gives the outsider a real chance to snatch something before the favourite settles. If you take a short match price and turn it into a first-set bet, you are taking on noticeably more risk.
Break 2Losing set 1 rarely ends a favourite's match
This grid splits every match into four outcomes, set by set. In the 50-60% band the favourite won set 1 but lost the match in 9.6% of matches, and lost set 1 but still won in 11.1%. Those two cells are close in size, which tells me a tight match can turn in either direction once play is under way.
Higher up the bands the picture becomes lopsided. In the 80-90% band the favourite won both the first set and the match in 75.0% of matches and lost both in just 9.9%. The cell for losing the opener and then recovering stays large across the bands, while the favourite winning set 1 and then losing the match shrinks steadily.
View the data: first set and match together, by price band
| Fav set 1 + match | Fav set 1, lost match | Lost set 1, won match | Lost set 1 + match | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-60% | 44.0% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 35.4% |
| 60-70% | 53.2% | 8.1% | 12.0% | 26.7% |
| 70-80% | 63.7% | 6.0% | 12.4% | 17.9% |
| 80-90% | 75.0% | 4.0% | 11.0% | 9.9% |
| 90%+ | 87.4% | 1.3% | 8.1% | 3.2% |
At the set break, then, a dropped first set from a strong favourite is not the alarm it can feel like courtside. The data show recoveries far outnumbering collapses once the favourite is priced above the coin-flip bands.
Break 3Best of five stretches the distance between set and match
Format changes the arithmetic. In men's best-of-three matches the favourite won set 1 64.1% of the time, which means fair first-set odds of 1.56, and the match 68.4%. On the WTA tour the figures are very similar: 65.5% for the set, fair odds of 1.53, and 69.1% for the match.
Men's best of five stands apart. Across 10,007 matches the favourite won set 1 68.9% of the time but the match 76.8%. These favourites also carried shorter prices on average, but the extra sets clearly give the better player more time to absorb an early setback.
| Format | Matches | Priced | Won set 1 | Won match | Fair set-1 odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATP best of 3 | 41,917 | 68.0% | 64.1% | 68.4% | 1.56 |
| ATP best of 5 | 10,007 | 74.7% | 68.9% | 76.8% | 1.45 |
| WTA | 40,696 | 68.5% | 65.5% | 69.1% | 1.53 |
For a bettor at a Grand Slam this matters. The match price on a men's favourite already accounts for those extra sets, so pricing the first set off that number would make it look shorter than it should be.
Break 4Surface barely moves the favourite's first-set rate
I came to tennis through clay, and I expected the slow red dirt to give underdogs more room in the opening set. It doesn't, at least not in aggregate. The favourite's first-set win rate was 65.1% on clay, 65.1% on grass and 65.3% on hard courts.
That doesn't mean surface is irrelevant to individual matchups. It shapes who becomes the favourite in the first place, and the market seems to absorb most of it into the price before the first ball is struck.
View the data: favourite's first-set win rate by surface
| All formats, priced matches | |
|---|---|
| Clay | 65.1% |
| Grass | 65.1% |
| Hard | 65.3% |
At the break
- Lengthen the first-set price
An average favourite's fair first-set odds were 1.53 against fair match odds of 1.44, so any first-set price close to the match price deserves scepticism. The gap is larger the shorter the favourite.
- Don't panic after set 1
In the 80-90% band, favourites who lost the opener still won the match in 11% of all matches, well over twice as often as they won the opener and then lost. A dropped first set from a strong favourite is usually recoverable.
- Check the format first
In men's best of five, favourites won set 1 68.9% of the time but the match 76.8%, the widest format gap in the study. Adjust for the extra sets before comparing set and match prices.
Questions bettors ask
How often does the tennis favourite win the first set?
Across 92,620 priced tour-level matches the pre-match favourite won the first set 65.2% of the time, compared with 69.6% for the match. One caveat: this is a historical record, not a betting system, and the gap shows how much longer a first-set price should be, not where value lies.
What are fair odds for a favourite to win the first set?
For an average favourite, fair first-set odds worked out at 1.53, against fair match odds of 1.44. In men's best-of-three matches the figure was 1.56, and in men's best of five it was 1.45.
Does surface affect whether the favourite wins the first set?
Hardly at all in aggregate. The favourite's first-set win rate was 65.1% on clay, 65.1% on grass and 65.3% on hard courts.
Tennis writer at htft.tips, based in Paris. Surface, scheduling and fatigue tell me far more than a ranking ever will.
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